Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006

G. Chowell, C. A. Torre, C. Munayco-Escate, L. Suárez-Ognio, R. López-Cruz, J. M. Hyman, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

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Abstract

The weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman ρ = 0.28, P = 0.03), had a median of 1.76 (IQR 0.83-4.46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, P < 0.004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman ρ = -0.43, P = 0.03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1667-1677
Number of pages11
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume136
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008

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Peru
Dengue
South America
Population Density
Reproduction
Demography
Population

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Epidemiology

Cite this

Chowell, G., Torre, C. A., Munayco-Escate, C., Suárez-Ognio, L., López-Cruz, R., Hyman, J. M., & Castillo-Chavez, C. (2008). Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006. Epidemiology and Infection, 136(12), 1667-1677. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268808000290

Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru : 1994-2006. / Chowell, G.; Torre, C. A.; Munayco-Escate, C.; Suárez-Ognio, L.; López-Cruz, R.; Hyman, J. M.; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos.

In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 136, No. 12, 2008, p. 1667-1677.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Chowell, G, Torre, CA, Munayco-Escate, C, Suárez-Ognio, L, López-Cruz, R, Hyman, JM & Castillo-Chavez, C 2008, 'Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 136, no. 12, pp. 1667-1677. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268808000290
Chowell G, Torre CA, Munayco-Escate C, Suárez-Ognio L, López-Cruz R, Hyman JM et al. Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006. Epidemiology and Infection. 2008;136(12):1667-1677. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268808000290
Chowell, G. ; Torre, C. A. ; Munayco-Escate, C. ; Suárez-Ognio, L. ; López-Cruz, R. ; Hyman, J. M. ; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. / Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru : 1994-2006. In: Epidemiology and Infection. 2008 ; Vol. 136, No. 12. pp. 1667-1677.
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