Spatial and temporal analysis of Middle Eastern temperature changes

The intense interest in the greenhouse effect has stimulated detailed studies of temperature records in North America, Europe, and Australia. In this investigation, the temperature records from the Middle East region (defined here as the land area extending from Morocco to Afghanistan) are investigated over the period 1950-1990. Results reveal a linear, statistically significant, temperature increase of 0.07°C per decade over the study area that may or may not be associated with the concurrent rise in equivalent carbon dioxide from approximately 350 ppm to 430 ppm. Seasonal analyses reveal that most of this increase has occurred in the spring season, moderate amounts of warming occurred in the summer and fall seasons, and virtually no warming has occurred in the winter months. An analysis of spatial controls on these temperature changes reveals a general cooling effect associated with the atmospheric sulfate levels and a warming effect associated with the degree of human-induced desertification. The results of this study may prove useful to policymakers in the Middle East who are confronted with many difficult decisions regarding highly interrelated global warming and energy issues.