Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research

Jonathan R. Thompson, Arnim Wiek, Frederick J. Swanson, Stephen R. Carpenter, Nancy Fresco, Teresa Hollingsworth, Thomas A. Spies, David R. Foster

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenario studies have emerged as a powerful approach for synthesizing diverse forms of research and for articulating and evaluating alternative socioecological futures. Unlike predictive modeling, scenarios do not attempt to forecast the precise or probable state of any variable at a given point in the future. Instead, comparisons among a set of contrasting scenarios are used to understand the systemic relationships and dynamics of complex socioecological systems and to define a range of possibilities and uncertainties in quantitative and qualitative terms. We describe five examples of scenario studies affiliated with the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and evaluate them in terms of their ability to advance the LTER Network's capacity for conducting science, promoting social and ecological science synthesis, and increasing the saliency of research through sustained outreach activities. We conclude with an argument that scenario studies should be advanced programmatically within large socioecological research programs to encourage prescient thinking in an era of unprecedented global change.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)367-376
Number of pages10
JournalBioScience
Volume62
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2012

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Research
outreach
global change
research programs
uncertainty
Uncertainty
synthesis

Keywords

  • futures
  • participatory engagement
  • science synthesis
  • socioecological systems

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Thompson, J. R., Wiek, A., Swanson, F. J., Carpenter, S. R., Fresco, N., Hollingsworth, T., ... Foster, D. R. (2012). Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research. BioScience, 62(4), 367-376. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2012.62.4.8

Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research. / Thompson, Jonathan R.; Wiek, Arnim; Swanson, Frederick J.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Fresco, Nancy; Hollingsworth, Teresa; Spies, Thomas A.; Foster, David R.

In: BioScience, Vol. 62, No. 4, 04.2012, p. 367-376.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Thompson, JR, Wiek, A, Swanson, FJ, Carpenter, SR, Fresco, N, Hollingsworth, T, Spies, TA & Foster, DR 2012, 'Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research', BioScience, vol. 62, no. 4, pp. 367-376. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2012.62.4.8
Thompson, Jonathan R. ; Wiek, Arnim ; Swanson, Frederick J. ; Carpenter, Stephen R. ; Fresco, Nancy ; Hollingsworth, Teresa ; Spies, Thomas A. ; Foster, David R. / Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research. In: BioScience. 2012 ; Vol. 62, No. 4. pp. 367-376.
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