Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research

Jonathan R. Thompson, Arnim Wiek, Frederick J. Swanson, Stephen R. Carpenter, Nancy Fresco, Teresa Hollingsworth, Thomas A. Spies, David R. Foster

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    39 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    Scenario studies have emerged as a powerful approach for synthesizing diverse forms of research and for articulating and evaluating alternative socioecological futures. Unlike predictive modeling, scenarios do not attempt to forecast the precise or probable state of any variable at a given point in the future. Instead, comparisons among a set of contrasting scenarios are used to understand the systemic relationships and dynamics of complex socioecological systems and to define a range of possibilities and uncertainties in quantitative and qualitative terms. We describe five examples of scenario studies affiliated with the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and evaluate them in terms of their ability to advance the LTER Network's capacity for conducting science, promoting social and ecological science synthesis, and increasing the saliency of research through sustained outreach activities. We conclude with an argument that scenario studies should be advanced programmatically within large socioecological research programs to encourage prescient thinking in an era of unprecedented global change.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)367-376
    Number of pages10
    JournalBioScience
    Volume62
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Apr 2012

    Keywords

    • futures
    • participatory engagement
    • science synthesis
    • socioecological systems

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

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    Thompson, J. R., Wiek, A., Swanson, F. J., Carpenter, S. R., Fresco, N., Hollingsworth, T., Spies, T. A., & Foster, D. R. (2012). Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research. BioScience, 62(4), 367-376. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2012.62.4.8