Risk-induced backward bifurcation in HSV-2 transmission dynamics

C. N. Podder, Abba Gumel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A risk-structured, two-sex, model for the transmission dynamics of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in a population is designed and qualitatively analysed. It is shown that adding risk structure (i.e., the risk of transmitting or acquiring HSV-2 in- fection) to an HSV-2 transmission model causes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. This dynamical feature, which has non-trivial consequence on the persistence or elimination of the disease (when the reproduction threshold is less than unity), can be removed if the susceptible male and female sub populations are not stratified according to the risk of acquiring HSV-2 infection.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)377-403
Number of pages27
JournalDynamics of Continuous, Discrete and Impulsive Systems Series B: Applications and Algorithms
Volume19
Issue number3
StatePublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Backward Bifurcation
Bifurcation (mathematics)
Viruses
Virus
Persistence
Infection
Elimination
Model

Keywords

  • Backward bifurcation
  • Equilibria
  • HSV-2
  • Low- and high-risk groups
  • Stability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Applied Mathematics
  • Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics

Cite this

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AB - A risk-structured, two-sex, model for the transmission dynamics of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in a population is designed and qualitatively analysed. It is shown that adding risk structure (i.e., the risk of transmitting or acquiring HSV-2 in- fection) to an HSV-2 transmission model causes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. This dynamical feature, which has non-trivial consequence on the persistence or elimination of the disease (when the reproduction threshold is less than unity), can be removed if the susceptible male and female sub populations are not stratified according to the risk of acquiring HSV-2 infection.

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