Abstract
Reproducibility of results from scientific studies is rarely demonstrated outside the laboratory. Measurements of fault slip rate underpin scientific models of active faulting and seismic hazard assessments widely used for policymaking and risk mitigation. We replicated a highly referenced study that measured the slip rate as 33.9 ± 2.9 mm/year along the San Andreas fault over the past ~3,700 years at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain National Monument, USA. Our results provide a slip rate of slip 36 ± 1 mm/year since ~3,500 CalBP. We find that the late Holocene slip rate of the San Andreas fault, a key indicator of seismic hazard, is reproducible within measurement uncertainty. Geologic slip rate determinations are relatively insensitive to short-term fluctuations and thus should be reproducible if the time interval of measurement is much greater than the average rupture interval.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 156-165 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Earth and Space Science |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 1 2019 |
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Keywords
- paleoseismology
- replication
- reproducibility
- San Andreas fault
- slip rate
- tectonics
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Cite this
Reproducibility of San Andreas Fault Slip Rate Measurements at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain, CA. / Grant Ludwig, Lisa; Akciz, Sinan O.; Arrowsmith, Ramon; Salisbury, J. Barrett.
In: Earth and Space Science, Vol. 6, No. 1, 01.01.2019, p. 156-165.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Reproducibility of San Andreas Fault Slip Rate Measurements at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain, CA
AU - Grant Ludwig, Lisa
AU - Akciz, Sinan O.
AU - Arrowsmith, Ramon
AU - Salisbury, J. Barrett
PY - 2019/1/1
Y1 - 2019/1/1
N2 - Reproducibility of results from scientific studies is rarely demonstrated outside the laboratory. Measurements of fault slip rate underpin scientific models of active faulting and seismic hazard assessments widely used for policymaking and risk mitigation. We replicated a highly referenced study that measured the slip rate as 33.9 ± 2.9 mm/year along the San Andreas fault over the past ~3,700 years at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain National Monument, USA. Our results provide a slip rate of slip 36 ± 1 mm/year since ~3,500 CalBP. We find that the late Holocene slip rate of the San Andreas fault, a key indicator of seismic hazard, is reproducible within measurement uncertainty. Geologic slip rate determinations are relatively insensitive to short-term fluctuations and thus should be reproducible if the time interval of measurement is much greater than the average rupture interval.
AB - Reproducibility of results from scientific studies is rarely demonstrated outside the laboratory. Measurements of fault slip rate underpin scientific models of active faulting and seismic hazard assessments widely used for policymaking and risk mitigation. We replicated a highly referenced study that measured the slip rate as 33.9 ± 2.9 mm/year along the San Andreas fault over the past ~3,700 years at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain National Monument, USA. Our results provide a slip rate of slip 36 ± 1 mm/year since ~3,500 CalBP. We find that the late Holocene slip rate of the San Andreas fault, a key indicator of seismic hazard, is reproducible within measurement uncertainty. Geologic slip rate determinations are relatively insensitive to short-term fluctuations and thus should be reproducible if the time interval of measurement is much greater than the average rupture interval.
KW - paleoseismology
KW - replication
KW - reproducibility
KW - San Andreas fault
KW - slip rate
KW - tectonics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061013719&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85061013719&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2017EA000360
DO - 10.1029/2017EA000360
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85061013719
VL - 6
SP - 156
EP - 165
JO - Earth and Space Science
JF - Earth and Space Science
SN - 2333-5084
IS - 1
ER -