@article{8a932723d802400585c36bd9fcb8df87,
title = "Reproducibility of San Andreas Fault Slip Rate Measurements at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain, CA",
abstract = "Reproducibility of results from scientific studies is rarely demonstrated outside the laboratory. Measurements of fault slip rate underpin scientific models of active faulting and seismic hazard assessments widely used for policymaking and risk mitigation. We replicated a highly referenced study that measured the slip rate as 33.9 ± 2.9 mm/year along the San Andreas fault over the past ~3,700 years at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain National Monument, USA. Our results provide a slip rate of slip 36 ± 1 mm/year since ~3,500 CalBP. We find that the late Holocene slip rate of the San Andreas fault, a key indicator of seismic hazard, is reproducible within measurement uncertainty. Geologic slip rate determinations are relatively insensitive to short-term fluctuations and thus should be reproducible if the time interval of measurement is much greater than the average rupture interval.",
keywords = "San Andreas fault, paleoseismology, replication, reproducibility, slip rate, tectonics",
author = "{Grant Ludwig}, Lisa and Akciz, {Sinan O.} and Ramon Arrowsmith and Salisbury, {J. Barrett}",
note = "Funding Information: The field work was conducted within the Carrizo Plain National Monument, under NEPA document DOI-BLM-CA-C069.2013.0178 with oversight of the Bureau of Land Management Biologist Kathy Sharum and assistance from students: Tsurue Sato, Terry M Cheiffetz, David E. Haddad, Gayatri I. Marliyani, Wendy Bohon, and Laura Delgado Mendes. We thank A. Meltzner and an anonymous reviewer for constructive and insightful reviews. This research was supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (Contribution 8145). SCEC is funded by NSF Cooperative Agreement EAR-1033462 and USGS Cooperative Agreement G12AC20038. The authors declare no financial conflicts of interest. S. O. A. conceived the idea for the study. S. O. A., L. G. L., and J. R. A. cowrote the research funding proposal. Field work was led by S. O. A., with major contributions by L. G. L., and significant contribution by J. B. S. Radiocarbon dating was done by S. O. A. J. R. A. conducted Monte Carlo simulation of slip rate convergence. Figures were prepared by S. O. A. and J. R. A. L. G. L. wrote the paper. All authors participated in data analysis and made intellectual contributions to the paper. The data used are listed in the references, tables, and supporting information. Images include data from the B4 LiDAR Project (http://www.earthsciences.osu.edu/b4,). B4 data are available from www.opentopography.org (https://doi.org/10.5069/G97P8W9T). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2019. The Authors.",
year = "2019",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1029/2017EA000360",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "6",
pages = "156--165",
journal = "Earth and Space Science",
issn = "2333-5084",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",
number = "1",
}