Real-time road traffic forecasting using regime-switching space-time models and adaptive LASSO

Yiannis Kamarianakis, Wei Shen, Laura Wynter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

47 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Smart transportation technologies require real-time traffic prediction to be both fast and scalable to full urban networks. We discuss a method that is able to meet this challenge while accounting for nonlinear traffic dynamics and space-time dependencies of traffic variables. Nonlinearity is taken into account by a union of non-overlapping linear regimes characterized by a sequence of temporal thresholds. In each regime, for each measurement location, a penalized estimation scheme, namely the adaptive absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), is implemented to perform model selection and coefficient estimation simultaneously. Both the robust to outliers least absolute deviation estimates and conventional LASSO estimates are considered. The methodology is illustrated on 5-minute average speed data from three highway networks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)297-315
Number of pages19
JournalApplied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Volume28
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2012
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Space-time Models
Adaptive Lasso
Regime Switching
Forecasting
Traffic
Least Absolute Deviation
Real-time
Traffic Dynamics
Shrinkage
Model Selection
Estimate
Nonlinear Dynamics
Outlier
Union
Space-time
Nonlinearity
Methodology
Prediction
Coefficient
Operator

Keywords

  • adaptive LASSO
  • real-time predictions
  • threshold regressions
  • traffic forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Management Science and Operations Research

Cite this

Real-time road traffic forecasting using regime-switching space-time models and adaptive LASSO. / Kamarianakis, Yiannis; Shen, Wei; Wynter, Laura.

In: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, Vol. 28, No. 4, 07.2012, p. 297-315.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Kamarianakis, Yiannis ; Shen, Wei ; Wynter, Laura. / Real-time road traffic forecasting using regime-switching space-time models and adaptive LASSO. In: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. 2012 ; Vol. 28, No. 4. pp. 297-315.
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