Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber

Mark Manfredo, Dwight R. Sanders

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing commodity price risk in many industries. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The US lumber market provides a unique case for examining this issue. The Bloch Lumber Company maintains an active cash forward market for many lumber products, and publishes benchmark forward prices on their website and disseminates these prices to data vendors. Focusing on 2×4 random lengths lumber and 7/16 oriented strand board, this research examines the lead-lag relationships between the 3-month forward prices published by Bloch Lumber, representative spot prices, and lumber futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Results suggest that at least for 2×4 random lengths lumber, the forward prices published by Block Lumber lead both the spot price and futures price, suggesting that this private cash forward market provides some level of price discovery in the lumber markets.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)73-89
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Forest Economics
Volume14
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 14 2008

Fingerprint

lumber
markets
market
futures trading
commodity prices
oriented strandboards
price
commodity price
role play
commodity
website
industry

Keywords

  • Forward prices
  • Futures prices
  • Granger causality
  • Price discovery
  • Spot prices

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Forestry
  • Ecology

Cite this

Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber. / Manfredo, Mark; Sanders, Dwight R.

In: Journal of Forest Economics, Vol. 14, No. 1, 14.01.2008, p. 73-89.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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