TY - JOUR
T1 - Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease
T2 - A Mathematical Modeling Analysis
AU - Gao, Daozhou
AU - Lou, Yijun
AU - He, Daihai
AU - Porco, Travis C.
AU - Kuang, Yang
AU - Chowell, Gerardo
AU - Ruan, Shigui
N1 - Funding Information:
Research was partially supported by the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) (NIGMS U01GM087728), Early Career Scheme from Hong Kong Research Grants Council (PolyU 251001/14M and PolyU 253004/14P), National Science Foundation (DMS-1518529, DMS-1412454), NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program, UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council grant BB/M008894/1, Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learning (TP2015050), Shanghai Gaofeng Project for University Academic Development Program, and the University of Miami Clinical and Translational Science Institute (CTSI) Project for Emerging Diseases.
PY - 2016/6/17
Y1 - 2016/6/17
N2 - The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number 0 = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523-6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123-45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that 0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes.
AB - The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number 0 = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523-6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123-45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that 0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes.
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U2 - 10.1038/srep28070
DO - 10.1038/srep28070
M3 - Article
C2 - 27312324
AN - SCOPUS:84975501656
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 6
JO - Scientific reports
JF - Scientific reports
M1 - 28070
ER -