Predictive maintenance of complex system with multi-level reliability structure

Dongjin Lee, Rong Pan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

38 Scopus citations


Onboard sensors, which constantly monitor the states of a system and its components, have made the predictive maintenance (PdM) of a complex system possible. To date, system reliability has been extensively studied with the assumption that systems are either single-component systems or they have a deterministic reliability structure. However, in many realistic problems, there are complex multi-component systems with uncertainties in the system reliability structure. This paper presents a PdM scheme for complex systems by employing discrete time Markov chain models for modelling multiple degradation processes of components and a Bayesian network (BN) model for predicting system reliability. The proposed method can be considered as a special type of dynamic Bayesian network because the same BN is repeatedly used over time for evaluating system reliability and the inter-time–slice connection of the same node is monitored by a sensor. This PdM scheme is able to make probabilistic inference at any system level, so PdM can be scheduled accordingly.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)4785-4801
Number of pages17
JournalInternational Journal of Production Research
Issue number16
StatePublished - Aug 18 2017


  • Bayesian network
  • Markov modelling
  • Reliability evaluation
  • maintenance planning
  • predictive maintenance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering


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