Predictive capability of chlorination disinfection byproducts models

There are over 100 models that have been developed for predicting trihalomethanes (THMs), haloacetic acids (HAAs), bromate, and unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs). Until now no publication has evaluated the variability of previous THM and HAA models using a common data set. In this article, the standard error (SE), Marquardt's percent standard deviation (MPSD), and linear coefficient of determination (R²) were used to analyze the variability of 87 models from 23 different publications. The most robust models were capable of predicting THM4 with an SE of 48μgL^-1 and HAA6 with an SE of 15μgL^-1, both achieving R²>0.90. The majority of models were formulated for THM4. There is a lack of published models evaluating total HAAs, individual THM and HAA species, bromate, and unregulated DBPs.