Prediction in a socio-hydrological world

V. Srinivasan, M. Sanderson, Margaret Garcia, M. Konar, G. Blöschl, M. Sivapalan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

40 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)338-345
Number of pages8
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume62
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 17 2017
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

stakeholder
prediction
trajectory
water resource
water
world
society
decision
water resources management
participation
public

Keywords

  • modelling
  • prediction
  • safe operating
  • socio-hydrology
  • trajectories
  • water resources

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Srinivasan, V., Sanderson, M., Garcia, M., Konar, M., Blöschl, G., & Sivapalan, M. (2017). Prediction in a socio-hydrological world. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(3), 338-345. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1253844

Prediction in a socio-hydrological world. / Srinivasan, V.; Sanderson, M.; Garcia, Margaret; Konar, M.; Blöschl, G.; Sivapalan, M.

In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 62, No. 3, 17.02.2017, p. 338-345.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Srinivasan, V, Sanderson, M, Garcia, M, Konar, M, Blöschl, G & Sivapalan, M 2017, 'Prediction in a socio-hydrological world', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 62, no. 3, pp. 338-345. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1253844
Srinivasan V, Sanderson M, Garcia M, Konar M, Blöschl G, Sivapalan M. Prediction in a socio-hydrological world. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2017 Feb 17;62(3):338-345. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1253844
Srinivasan, V. ; Sanderson, M. ; Garcia, Margaret ; Konar, M. ; Blöschl, G. ; Sivapalan, M. / Prediction in a socio-hydrological world. In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2017 ; Vol. 62, No. 3. pp. 338-345.
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