Predicting Terminal Mid-Air Collisions through Simulator Experiments of Air Traffic Control

Yanyu Wang, Pingbo Tang, Ying Shi, Yongming Liu, Nancy J. Cooke

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The workload of air traffic controllers (ATCs) is increasing due to the growing air traffic. Early alarms of loss of separation (LoS) events between aircraft are critical for ATCs to coordinate intensive traffic safely. The authors studied the time series of traffic densities and numbers of turning aircraft in a given sky section as early indicators of pending LoS. Simulator experiment produced data for comparing the prediction accuracies of the logistic regression models generated from the time series of traffic densities and numbers of turning aircraft, and combinations of these two. We studied different sections of the time series to examine the possibility of early detection and found that 1) the regression model based on the traffic density time series is more accurate than the model using the numbers of turning aircraft; 2) properly combining sections of the time series could produce models that achieve earlier predictions without losing accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020
EditorsK.-H. Bae, B. Feng, S. Kim, S. Lazarova-Molnar, Z. Zheng, T. Roeder, R. Thiesing
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages2536-2548
Number of pages13
ISBN (Electronic)9781728194998
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 14 2020
Event2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020 - Orlando, United States
Duration: Dec 14 2020Dec 18 2020

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
Volume2020-December
ISSN (Print)0891-7736

Conference

Conference2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020
CountryUnited States
CityOrlando
Period12/14/2012/18/20

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications

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