Predicting Recidivism: An Evaluation of the Wisconsin Juvenile Probation and Aftercare Risk Instrument

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26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Risk assessment devices are being increasingly used throughout the country. Most research has evaluated the use of such instruments with adults. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of the Wisconsin Juvenile Probation and Aftercare Risk instrument that is being promoted as a “model system” for other states to use. This study used discriminant analysis to examine the extent to which the Wisconsin instrument could discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists. The results found that only one of the eight variables was significantly related to recidivism. The instruments' total risk score could not discriminate between the recidivist and nonrecidivist groups, bringing into question its validity. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of aftercare management of juvenile offenders.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)141-151
Number of pages11
JournalCriminal Justice and Behavior
Volume15
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 1988

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after-care
Aftercare
probation
repeat offender
Discriminant Analysis
evaluation
Equipment and Supplies
juvenile offender
discriminant analysis
system model
Research
risk assessment
management
Group

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Law
  • Psychology(all)

Cite this

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title = "Predicting Recidivism: An Evaluation of the Wisconsin Juvenile Probation and Aftercare Risk Instrument",
abstract = "Risk assessment devices are being increasingly used throughout the country. Most research has evaluated the use of such instruments with adults. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of the Wisconsin Juvenile Probation and Aftercare Risk instrument that is being promoted as a “model system” for other states to use. This study used discriminant analysis to examine the extent to which the Wisconsin instrument could discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists. The results found that only one of the eight variables was significantly related to recidivism. The instruments' total risk score could not discriminate between the recidivist and nonrecidivist groups, bringing into question its validity. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of aftercare management of juvenile offenders.",
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