Abstract
Most population viability analyses (PVA) assume that the effects of species interactions are subsumed by populationlevel parameters. We examine how robust five commonly used PVA models are to violations of this assumption. We develop a stochastic, stagestructured predatorprey model and simulate prey population vital rates and abundance. We then use simulated data to parameterize and estimate risk for three demographic models (static projection matrix, stochastic projection matrix, stochastic vital rate matrix) and two time series models (diffusion approximation [DA], corrupted diffusion approximation [CDA]). Model bias is measured as the absolute deviation between estimated and observed quasiextinction risk. Our results highlight three generalities about the application of singlespecies models to multispecies conservation problems. First, our collective model results suggest that most singlespecies PVA models overestimate extinction risk when species interactions cause periodic variation in abundance. Second, the DA model produces the most (conservatively) biased risk forecasts. Finally, the CDA model is the most robust PVA to population cycles caused by species interactions. CDA models produce virtually unbiased and relatively precise risk estimates even when populations cycle strongly. High performance of simple time series models like the CDA owes to their ability to effectively partition stochastic and deterministic sources of variation in population abundance.
Original language  English (US) 

Pages (fromto)  15431554 
Number of pages  12 
Journal  Ecological Applications 
Volume  17 
Issue number  5 
DOIs  
State  Published  Jul 2007 
Keywords
 Corrupted diffusion approximation
 Extinction
 Parameter estimation
 Population cycles
 Population viability analysis
 Predatorprey
 Projection matrix
 Species interactions
 Stage structure
 Stochasticity
 Time series
 Vital rate
ASJC Scopus subject areas
 Ecology
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Appendix A. Detailed descriptions of stochastic stagestructured predator–prey model.
Sabo, J. L. (Creator) & Gerber, L. (Creator), figshare Academic Research System, 2016
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.3513215.v1, https://wiley.figshare.com/articles/dataset/Appendix_A_Detailed_descriptions_of_stochastic_stagestructured_predator_prey_model_/3513215/1
Dataset

PREDICTING EXTINCTION RISK IN SPITE OF PREDATOR–PREY OSCILLATIONS
Sabo, J. L. (Creator) & Gerber, L. (Creator), figshare Academic Research System, 2016
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3293783.v1, https://figshare.com/collections/PREDICTING_EXTINCTION_RISK_IN_SPITE_OF_PREDATOR_PREY_OSCILLATIONS/3293783/1
Dataset

Appendix B. Parameter values for stable and oscillatory regimes.
Sabo, J. L. (Creator) & Gerber, L. (Creator), figshare Academic Research System, 2016
DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.3513212.v1, https://wiley.figshare.com/articles/dataset/Appendix_B_Parameter_values_for_stable_and_oscillatory_regimes_/3513212/1
Dataset