Abstract
The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 293-306 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Ecology Letters |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Mar 1 2017 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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Keywords
- Alternate states
- chaos
- climate change
- community assembly
- community climate
- community response diagram
- disequilibrium
- hysteresis
- lag
- memory effects
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Cite this
Predictability in community dynamics. / Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E.; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J.; Graae, Bente J.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens Christian.
In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 20, No. 3, 01.03.2017, p. 293-306.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictability in community dynamics
AU - Blonder, Benjamin
AU - Moulton, Derek E.
AU - Blois, Jessica
AU - Enquist, Brian J.
AU - Graae, Bente J.
AU - Macias-Fauria, Marc
AU - McGill, Brian
AU - Nogué, Sandra
AU - Ordonez, Alejandro
AU - Sandel, Brody
AU - Svenning, Jens Christian
PY - 2017/3/1
Y1 - 2017/3/1
N2 - The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.
AB - The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state.
KW - Alternate states
KW - chaos
KW - climate change
KW - community assembly
KW - community climate
KW - community response diagram
KW - disequilibrium
KW - hysteresis
KW - lag
KW - memory effects
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85011332603&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85011332603&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/ele.12736
DO - 10.1111/ele.12736
M3 - Article
C2 - 28145038
AN - SCOPUS:85011332603
VL - 20
SP - 293
EP - 306
JO - Ecology Letters
JF - Ecology Letters
SN - 1461-023X
IS - 3
ER -