Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt

Matthew Scotch, Changjiang Mei, Yilma J. Makonnen, Julio Pinto, AbdelHakim Ali, Sally Vegso, Michael Kane, Indra N. Sarkar, Peter Rabinowitz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Influenza A H5N1 has killed millions of birds and raises serious public health concern because of its potential to spread to humans and cause a global pandemic. While the early focus was in Asia, recent evidence suggests that Egypt is a new epicenter for the disease. This includes characterization of a variant clade 2.2.1.1, which has been found almost exclusively in Egypt. We analyzed 226 HA and 92 NA sequences with an emphasis on the H5N1 2.2.1.1 strains in Egypt using a Bayesian discrete phylogeography approach. This allowed modeling of virus dispersion between Egyptian governorates including the most likely origin. Results: Phylogeography models of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) suggest Ash Sharqiyah as the origin of virus spread, however the support is weak based on Kullback-Leibler values of 0.09 for HA and 0.01 for NA. Association Index (AI) values and Parsimony Scores (PS) were significant (p-value < 0.05), indicating that dispersion of H5N1 in Egypt was geographically structured. In addition, the Ash Sharqiyah to Al Gharbiyah and Al Fayyum to Al Qalyubiyah routes had the strongest statistical support.Conclusion: We found that the majority of routes with strong statistical support were in the heavily populated Delta region. In particular, the Al Qalyubiyah governorate appears to represent a popular location for virus transition as it represented a large portion of branches in both trees. However, there remains uncertainty about virus dispersion to and from this location and thus more research needs to be conducted in order to examine this.Phylogeography can highlight the drivers of H5N1 emergence and spread. This knowledge can be used to target public health efforts to reduce morbidity and mortality. For Egypt, future work should focus on using data about vaccination and live bird markets in phylogeography models to study their impact on H5N1 diffusion within the country.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number871
JournalBMC Genomics
Volume14
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 10 2013

Fingerprint

Phylogeography
Egypt
Human Influenza
Hemagglutinins
Neuraminidase
Viruses
Birds
Public Health
Pandemics
Uncertainty
Vaccination
Morbidity
Mortality
Research

Keywords

  • Egypt
  • Epidemiology
  • Influenza a virus, H5N1 subtype
  • Phylogeography
  • Zoonoses

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biotechnology
  • Genetics

Cite this

Scotch, M., Mei, C., Makonnen, Y. J., Pinto, J., Ali, A., Vegso, S., ... Rabinowitz, P. (2013). Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt. BMC Genomics, 14(1), [871]. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2164-14-871

Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt. / Scotch, Matthew; Mei, Changjiang; Makonnen, Yilma J.; Pinto, Julio; Ali, AbdelHakim; Vegso, Sally; Kane, Michael; Sarkar, Indra N.; Rabinowitz, Peter.

In: BMC Genomics, Vol. 14, No. 1, 871, 10.12.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Scotch, M, Mei, C, Makonnen, YJ, Pinto, J, Ali, A, Vegso, S, Kane, M, Sarkar, IN & Rabinowitz, P 2013, 'Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt', BMC Genomics, vol. 14, no. 1, 871. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2164-14-871
Scotch M, Mei C, Makonnen YJ, Pinto J, Ali A, Vegso S et al. Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt. BMC Genomics. 2013 Dec 10;14(1). 871. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2164-14-871
Scotch, Matthew ; Mei, Changjiang ; Makonnen, Yilma J. ; Pinto, Julio ; Ali, AbdelHakim ; Vegso, Sally ; Kane, Michael ; Sarkar, Indra N. ; Rabinowitz, Peter. / Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt. In: BMC Genomics. 2013 ; Vol. 14, No. 1.
@article{cc62f5f69a0c4712b5213a8a441225fa,
title = "Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt",
abstract = "Background: Influenza A H5N1 has killed millions of birds and raises serious public health concern because of its potential to spread to humans and cause a global pandemic. While the early focus was in Asia, recent evidence suggests that Egypt is a new epicenter for the disease. This includes characterization of a variant clade 2.2.1.1, which has been found almost exclusively in Egypt. We analyzed 226 HA and 92 NA sequences with an emphasis on the H5N1 2.2.1.1 strains in Egypt using a Bayesian discrete phylogeography approach. This allowed modeling of virus dispersion between Egyptian governorates including the most likely origin. Results: Phylogeography models of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) suggest Ash Sharqiyah as the origin of virus spread, however the support is weak based on Kullback-Leibler values of 0.09 for HA and 0.01 for NA. Association Index (AI) values and Parsimony Scores (PS) were significant (p-value < 0.05), indicating that dispersion of H5N1 in Egypt was geographically structured. In addition, the Ash Sharqiyah to Al Gharbiyah and Al Fayyum to Al Qalyubiyah routes had the strongest statistical support.Conclusion: We found that the majority of routes with strong statistical support were in the heavily populated Delta region. In particular, the Al Qalyubiyah governorate appears to represent a popular location for virus transition as it represented a large portion of branches in both trees. However, there remains uncertainty about virus dispersion to and from this location and thus more research needs to be conducted in order to examine this.Phylogeography can highlight the drivers of H5N1 emergence and spread. This knowledge can be used to target public health efforts to reduce morbidity and mortality. For Egypt, future work should focus on using data about vaccination and live bird markets in phylogeography models to study their impact on H5N1 diffusion within the country.",
keywords = "Egypt, Epidemiology, Influenza a virus, H5N1 subtype, Phylogeography, Zoonoses",
author = "Matthew Scotch and Changjiang Mei and Makonnen, {Yilma J.} and Julio Pinto and AbdelHakim Ali and Sally Vegso and Michael Kane and Sarkar, {Indra N.} and Peter Rabinowitz",
year = "2013",
month = "12",
day = "10",
doi = "10.1186/1471-2164-14-871",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "14",
journal = "BMC Genomics",
issn = "1471-2164",
publisher = "BioMed Central",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Phylogeography of influenza A H5N1 clade 2.2.1.1 in Egypt

AU - Scotch, Matthew

AU - Mei, Changjiang

AU - Makonnen, Yilma J.

AU - Pinto, Julio

AU - Ali, AbdelHakim

AU - Vegso, Sally

AU - Kane, Michael

AU - Sarkar, Indra N.

AU - Rabinowitz, Peter

PY - 2013/12/10

Y1 - 2013/12/10

N2 - Background: Influenza A H5N1 has killed millions of birds and raises serious public health concern because of its potential to spread to humans and cause a global pandemic. While the early focus was in Asia, recent evidence suggests that Egypt is a new epicenter for the disease. This includes characterization of a variant clade 2.2.1.1, which has been found almost exclusively in Egypt. We analyzed 226 HA and 92 NA sequences with an emphasis on the H5N1 2.2.1.1 strains in Egypt using a Bayesian discrete phylogeography approach. This allowed modeling of virus dispersion between Egyptian governorates including the most likely origin. Results: Phylogeography models of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) suggest Ash Sharqiyah as the origin of virus spread, however the support is weak based on Kullback-Leibler values of 0.09 for HA and 0.01 for NA. Association Index (AI) values and Parsimony Scores (PS) were significant (p-value < 0.05), indicating that dispersion of H5N1 in Egypt was geographically structured. In addition, the Ash Sharqiyah to Al Gharbiyah and Al Fayyum to Al Qalyubiyah routes had the strongest statistical support.Conclusion: We found that the majority of routes with strong statistical support were in the heavily populated Delta region. In particular, the Al Qalyubiyah governorate appears to represent a popular location for virus transition as it represented a large portion of branches in both trees. However, there remains uncertainty about virus dispersion to and from this location and thus more research needs to be conducted in order to examine this.Phylogeography can highlight the drivers of H5N1 emergence and spread. This knowledge can be used to target public health efforts to reduce morbidity and mortality. For Egypt, future work should focus on using data about vaccination and live bird markets in phylogeography models to study their impact on H5N1 diffusion within the country.

AB - Background: Influenza A H5N1 has killed millions of birds and raises serious public health concern because of its potential to spread to humans and cause a global pandemic. While the early focus was in Asia, recent evidence suggests that Egypt is a new epicenter for the disease. This includes characterization of a variant clade 2.2.1.1, which has been found almost exclusively in Egypt. We analyzed 226 HA and 92 NA sequences with an emphasis on the H5N1 2.2.1.1 strains in Egypt using a Bayesian discrete phylogeography approach. This allowed modeling of virus dispersion between Egyptian governorates including the most likely origin. Results: Phylogeography models of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) suggest Ash Sharqiyah as the origin of virus spread, however the support is weak based on Kullback-Leibler values of 0.09 for HA and 0.01 for NA. Association Index (AI) values and Parsimony Scores (PS) were significant (p-value < 0.05), indicating that dispersion of H5N1 in Egypt was geographically structured. In addition, the Ash Sharqiyah to Al Gharbiyah and Al Fayyum to Al Qalyubiyah routes had the strongest statistical support.Conclusion: We found that the majority of routes with strong statistical support were in the heavily populated Delta region. In particular, the Al Qalyubiyah governorate appears to represent a popular location for virus transition as it represented a large portion of branches in both trees. However, there remains uncertainty about virus dispersion to and from this location and thus more research needs to be conducted in order to examine this.Phylogeography can highlight the drivers of H5N1 emergence and spread. This knowledge can be used to target public health efforts to reduce morbidity and mortality. For Egypt, future work should focus on using data about vaccination and live bird markets in phylogeography models to study their impact on H5N1 diffusion within the country.

KW - Egypt

KW - Epidemiology

KW - Influenza a virus, H5N1 subtype

KW - Phylogeography

KW - Zoonoses

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84889832822&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84889832822&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1186/1471-2164-14-871

DO - 10.1186/1471-2164-14-871

M3 - Article

C2 - 24325606

AN - SCOPUS:84889832822

VL - 14

JO - BMC Genomics

JF - BMC Genomics

SN - 1471-2164

IS - 1

M1 - 871

ER -