TY - JOUR
T1 - Perspectives on the role of mobility, behavior, and time scales in the spread of diseases
AU - Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
AU - Bichara, Derdei
AU - Morin, Benjamin R.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by NIH National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) Grant 1R01GM100471-01. This study was partly supported by a United States-United Kingdom collaborative grant between the joint National Science Foundation-NIH-US Department of Agriculture Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases Program (Grant DEB-1414374) and the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Grant BB-M008894-1). The contents of this article are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2016, National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2016/12/20
Y1 - 2016/12/20
N2 - The dynamics, control, and evolution of communicable and vector-borne diseases are intimately connected to the joint dynamics of epidemiological, behavioral, and mobility processes that operate across multiple spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. The identification of a theoretical explanatory framework that accounts for the pattern regularity exhibited by a large number of host-parasite systems, including those sustained by host-vector epidemiological dynamics, is but one of the challenges facing the coevolving fields of computational, evolutionary, and theoretical epidemiology. Host-parasite epidemiological patterns, including epidemic outbreaks and endemic recurrent dynamics, are characteristic to well-identified regions of the world; the result of processes and constraints such as strain competition, host and vector mobility, and population structure operating over multiple scales in response to recurrent disturbances (like El Niño) and climatological and environmental perturbations over thousands of years. It is therefore important to identify and quantify the processes responsible for observed epidemiological macroscopic patterns: the result of individual interactions in changing social and ecological landscapes. In this perspective, we touch on some of the issues calling for the identification of an encompassing theoretical explanatory framework by identifying some of the limitations of existing theory, in the context of particular epidemiological systems. Fostering the reenergizing of research that aims at disentangling the role of epidemiological and socioeconomic forces on disease dynamics, better understood as complex adaptive systems, is a key aim of this perspective.
AB - The dynamics, control, and evolution of communicable and vector-borne diseases are intimately connected to the joint dynamics of epidemiological, behavioral, and mobility processes that operate across multiple spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. The identification of a theoretical explanatory framework that accounts for the pattern regularity exhibited by a large number of host-parasite systems, including those sustained by host-vector epidemiological dynamics, is but one of the challenges facing the coevolving fields of computational, evolutionary, and theoretical epidemiology. Host-parasite epidemiological patterns, including epidemic outbreaks and endemic recurrent dynamics, are characteristic to well-identified regions of the world; the result of processes and constraints such as strain competition, host and vector mobility, and population structure operating over multiple scales in response to recurrent disturbances (like El Niño) and climatological and environmental perturbations over thousands of years. It is therefore important to identify and quantify the processes responsible for observed epidemiological macroscopic patterns: the result of individual interactions in changing social and ecological landscapes. In this perspective, we touch on some of the issues calling for the identification of an encompassing theoretical explanatory framework by identifying some of the limitations of existing theory, in the context of particular epidemiological systems. Fostering the reenergizing of research that aims at disentangling the role of epidemiological and socioeconomic forces on disease dynamics, better understood as complex adaptive systems, is a key aim of this perspective.
KW - Behavior
KW - Complex adaptive systems
KW - Infectious disease
KW - Mobility
KW - Risk
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1604994113
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1604994113
M3 - Review article
C2 - 27965394
AN - SCOPUS:85006459262
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 113
SP - 14582
EP - 14588
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 51
ER -