Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

Victor Brovkin, Edward Brook, John W. Williams, Sebastian Bathiany, Timothy M. Lenton, Michael Barton, Robert M. DeConto, Jonathan F. Donges, Andrey Ganopolski, Jerry McManus, Summer Praetorius, Anne de Vernal, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Hai Cheng, Martin Claussen, Michel Crucifix, Gilberto Gallopín, Virginia Iglesias, Darrell S. Kaufman, Thomas KleinenFabrice Lambert, Sander van der Leeuw, Hannah Liddy, Marie France Loutre, David McGee, Kira Rehfeld, Rachael Rhodes, Alistair W.R. Seddon, Martin H. Trauth, Lilian Vanderveken, Zicheng Yu

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)550-558
Number of pages9
JournalNature Geoscience
Volume14
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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