Organizational pressures on forecast evaluation: Managerial, political, and procedural influences

Vernon Dale Jones, Stuart Bretschneider, Wilpen L. Gorr

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory to explain why some forecasting organizations institutionalize forecast accuracy evaluation while others do not. The theory considers internal and external aspects of managerial, political, and procedural factors as they affect forecasting organizations. The theory is then tested using data from a survey of the US Federal Forecasters Group. Though some support for the theory is developed, multiple alternative explanations for results and the 'public' nature of the sample organizations prevent wide-scale generalization. The results suggest that larger organizations are more likely to have some form of forecast evaluation than smaller units. The institutionalization of forecast accuracy evaluation is closely linked to internal managerial and procedural factors, while external political pressure tends to reduce the likelihood of institutionalization of evaluation of forecast accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)241-254
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume16
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1997
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Implementation of forecasts
  • Institutional, organizational, managerial, political, and procedural pressures and influences on forecasting
  • Users of forecasts

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Strategy and Management
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Management Science and Operations Research

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Organizational pressures on forecast evaluation: Managerial, political, and procedural influences'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this