Operationalizing the opportunistic behavior in model formulation

A review of the literature in model formulation reveals varying approaches. These approaches can be classified under efforts related to design and planning. A quasi-experiment was conducted using the think-aloud approach to study the process of model formulation as undertaken by expert modelers. Model in the present context refers to a structure which is built purposely to exhibit features and characteristics of certain scenarios. Model formulation then is the human problem solving activity focused on the process of constructing models. The domain of interest was managerial problem solving, in particular, problems from the areas of Auditing, Forecasting and Production Planning were studied. An evaluation of the verbalizations by the experts reveals the predominant use of opportunism in the process. Opportunism is one approach to problem solving where the modeler follows the most promising leads at any point in time. A cognitive model was used to categorize and understand the expert protocols as derived from the verbalizations. A comparison of the verbalizations using this model shows similarity in the process of formulation. The cognitive model is operationalized using a blackboard architecture.