Ontogeny constrains phenology: Opportunities for activity and reproduction interact to dictate potential phenologies in a changing climate

Ofir Levy, Lauren B. Buckley, Timothy H. Keitt, Michael Angilletta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

25 Scopus citations

Abstract

As global warming has lengthened the active seasons of many species, we need a framework for predicting how advances in phenology shape the life history and the resulting fitness of organisms. Using an individual-based model, we show how warming differently affects annual cycles of development, growth, reproduction and activity in a group of North American lizards. Populations in cold regions can grow and reproduce more when warming lengthens their active season. However, future warming of currently warm regions advances the reproductive season but reduces the survival of embryos and juveniles. Hence, stressful temperatures during summer can offset predicted gains from extended growth seasons and select for lizards that reproduce after the warm summer months. Understanding these cascading effects of climate change may be crucial to predict shifts in the life history and demography of species.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalEcology Letters
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - 2016

Keywords

  • Biophysical model
  • Climate change
  • Embryos
  • Hatchlings
  • Heat events
  • Individual-based model
  • Life cycle
  • Lizards
  • Phenology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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