Nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes from watersheds of the northeast U.S. from 1930 to 2000: Role of anthropogenic nutrient inputs, infrastructure, and runoff

An ongoing challenge for society is to harness the benefits of nutrients, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), while minimizing their negative effects on ecosystems. While there is a good understanding of the mechanisms of nutrient delivery at small scales, it is unknown how nutrient transport and processing scale up to larger watersheds and whole regions over long time periods. We used a model that incorporates nutrient inputs to watersheds, hydrology, and infrastructure (sewers, wastewater treatment plants, and reservoirs) to reconstruct historic nutrient yields for the northeastern U.S. from 1930 to 2002. Over the study period, yields of nutrients increased significantly from some watersheds and decreased in others. As a result, at the regional scale, the total yield of N and P from the region did not change significantly. Temporal variation in regional N and P yields was correlated with runoff coefficient, but not with nutrient inputs. Spatial patterns of N and P yields were best predicted by nutrient inputs, but the correlation between inputs and yields across watersheds decreased over the study period. The effect of infrastructure on yields was minimal relative to the importance of soils and rivers. However, infrastructure appeared to alter the relationships between inputs and yields. The role of infrastructure changed over time and was important in creating spatial and temporal heterogeneity in nutrient input-yield relationships.