Neighborhood effects on heat deaths

Social and environmental predictors of vulnerability in Maricopa county, Arizona

Sharon Harlan, Juan H. Declet-Barreto, William L. Stefanov, Diana B. Petitti

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

131 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Most heat-related deaths occur in cities, and future trends in global climate change and urbanization may amplify this trend. Understanding how neighborhoods affect heat mortality fills an important gap between studies of individual susceptibility to heat and broadly comparative studies of temperature-mortality relationships in cities. Objectives: We estimated neighborhood effects of population characteristics and built and natural environments on deaths due to heat exposure in Maricopa County, Arizona (2000-2008). Methods: We used 2000 U.S. Census data and remotely sensed vegetation and land surface temperature to construct indicators of neighborhood vulnerability and a geographic information system to map vulnerability and residential addresses of persons who died from heat exposure in 2,081 census block groups. Binary logistic regression and spatial analysis were used to associate deaths with neighborhoods. results: Neighborhood scores on three factors-socioeconomic vulnerability, elderly/isolation, and unvegetated area-varied widely throughout the study area. Te preferred model (based on ft and parsimony) for predicting the odds of one or more deaths from heat exposure within a census block group included the first two factors and surface temperature in residential neighborhoods, holding population size constant. Spatial analysis identified clusters of neighborhoods with the highest heat vulnerability scores. A large proportion of deaths occurred among people, including homeless persons, who lived in the inner cores of the largest cities and along an industrial corridor. Conclusions: Place-based indicators of vulnerability complement analyses of person-level heat risk factors. Surface temperature might be used in Maricopa County to identify the most heat- vulnerable neighborhoods, but more attention to the socioecological complexities of climate adaptation is needed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)197-204
Number of pages8
JournalEnvironmental Health Perspectives
Volume121
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2013

Fingerprint

Hot Temperature
Censuses
Spatial Analysis
Temperature
Homeless Persons
Geographic Information Systems
Urbanization
Mortality
Climate Change
Population Characteristics
Population Density
Climate
Logistic Models
Regression Analysis

Keywords

  • Climate
  • GIS
  • Heat mortality
  • Neighborhoods
  • Remote sensing
  • Vulnerability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Neighborhood effects on heat deaths : Social and environmental predictors of vulnerability in Maricopa county, Arizona. / Harlan, Sharon; Declet-Barreto, Juan H.; Stefanov, William L.; Petitti, Diana B.

In: Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 121, No. 2, 02.2013, p. 197-204.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harlan, Sharon ; Declet-Barreto, Juan H. ; Stefanov, William L. ; Petitti, Diana B. / Neighborhood effects on heat deaths : Social and environmental predictors of vulnerability in Maricopa county, Arizona. In: Environmental Health Perspectives. 2013 ; Vol. 121, No. 2. pp. 197-204.
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