Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts

Dwight R. Sanders, Mark Manfredo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) livestock production forecasts are evaluated for their information content across multiple forecast horizons using the direct test developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez (2005). Forecasts are explicitly tested for rationality (unbiased and efficient) as well as for incremental information out to three-quarters ahead. The results suggest that although the forecasts are often not rational, they typically do provide the forecast user with unique information at each horizon. Turkey and milk production forecasts are found to provide the most consistent performance, while beef production forecasts provide little information beyond the two-quarter horizon.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)55-66
Number of pages12
JournalAgribusiness
Volume24
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008

Fingerprint

United States Department of Agriculture
Livestock
Turkey
USDA
Milk
agriculture
information content
rationality
poultry production
livestock production
milk production
beef
livestock farming
performance
Red Meat
forecast
Agriculture
testing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Food Science
  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • Geography, Planning and Development

Cite this

Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts. / Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark.

In: Agribusiness, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2008, p. 55-66.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sanders, Dwight R. ; Manfredo, Mark. / Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts. In: Agribusiness. 2008 ; Vol. 24, No. 1. pp. 55-66.
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