TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the critical transition from Chilean evergreen forest to savanna
T2 - Early warning signals and livestock management
AU - Baeza-Castro, Andres
N1 - Funding Information:
The National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) under funding received from the National Science Foundation DBI-1639145 supported this work. The author also acknowledges funds provided by the NSF grant (No. 1414052). The author is deeply thankful to Sonia Kefi and Florian D. Schneider for the sharing of code and for the valuable comments and suggestions received in early stages of this work. Also to Florian D. Schneider for transforming the original code into the framing of the cellular automata package “caspr”. Finally, the author acknowledges the valuable comments and suggestions received from the two reviewers of this manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier B.V.
Copyright:
Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2018/11/24
Y1 - 2018/11/24
N2 - Semi-desert areas are sensitive to changes in rainfall and agricultural pressure, prone to abrupt changes and to the collapse of ecological functions. The sclerophyllous evergreen forest of central Chile, known as matorral, has been extensively overgrazed by domestic livestock. As a consequence, the native and endemic species of this forest community have been replaced by a savanna-type environment dominated by the species Acacia caven, known as espinales. It has been hypothesized that the collapse of matorral forest can be abrupt, and the two ecosystems represent two alternative stable states. To understand the ecological dynamics that occur during this transition, their signature in space, and the consequences of livestock management, a cellular automata model that considers the local interaction among forest vegetation, Acacia, and livestock management was developed. By simulating and analyzing the process of fragmentation in space and time, in a gradient of livestock pressure and aridity, the results show that the system exhibits properties of “robust criticality” with a shift of patch-size distributions from models matching power-laws to models matching truncated power-laws as livestock pressure increases nearby the point of collapse. Simulation results in scenarios with rotation of livestock at the tipping point reveal the interaction between resting frequency and forest conservation. These results provide information to design better management strategies in human-modified landscapes in the remaining Chilean matorral.
AB - Semi-desert areas are sensitive to changes in rainfall and agricultural pressure, prone to abrupt changes and to the collapse of ecological functions. The sclerophyllous evergreen forest of central Chile, known as matorral, has been extensively overgrazed by domestic livestock. As a consequence, the native and endemic species of this forest community have been replaced by a savanna-type environment dominated by the species Acacia caven, known as espinales. It has been hypothesized that the collapse of matorral forest can be abrupt, and the two ecosystems represent two alternative stable states. To understand the ecological dynamics that occur during this transition, their signature in space, and the consequences of livestock management, a cellular automata model that considers the local interaction among forest vegetation, Acacia, and livestock management was developed. By simulating and analyzing the process of fragmentation in space and time, in a gradient of livestock pressure and aridity, the results show that the system exhibits properties of “robust criticality” with a shift of patch-size distributions from models matching power-laws to models matching truncated power-laws as livestock pressure increases nearby the point of collapse. Simulation results in scenarios with rotation of livestock at the tipping point reveal the interaction between resting frequency and forest conservation. These results provide information to design better management strategies in human-modified landscapes in the remaining Chilean matorral.
KW - Acacia caven
KW - Alternative ecosystem states
KW - Ecosystem shift
KW - Matorral
KW - Robust criticality
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U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.09.022
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.09.022
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85054620175
SN - 0304-3800
VL - 388
SP - 115
EP - 123
JO - Ecological Modelling
JF - Ecological Modelling
ER -