Modeling the effects of updating the influenza vaccine on the efficacy of repeated vaccination

Derek J. Smith, Alan S. Lapedes, Stephanie Forrest, Jan C. de Jong, Albert D.M.E. Osterhaus, Ron A.M. Fouchier, Nancy J. Cox, Alan S. Perelson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: The accumulated wisdom is to update the vaccine strain to the expected epidemic strain only when there is at least a 4-fold difference [measured by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay] between the current vaccine strain and the expected epidemic strain. In this study we investigate the effect, on repeat vaccinees, of updating the vaccine when there is a less than 4-fold difference. Methods: Using a computer model of the immune response to repeated vaccination, we simulated updating the vaccine on a 2-fold difference and compared this to not updating the vaccine, in each case predicting the vaccine efficacy in first-time and repeat vaccinees for a variety of possible epidemic strains. Results: Updating the vaccine strain on a 2-fold difference resulted in increased vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees compared to leaving the vaccine unchanged. Conclusions: These results suggest that updating the vaccine strain on a 2-fold difference between the existing vaccine strain and the expected epidemic strain will increase vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees compared to leaving the vaccine unchanged.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)655-660
Number of pages6
JournalInternational Congress Series
Volume1219
Issue numberC
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2001
Externally publishedYes

    Fingerprint

Keywords

  • Antigenic distance
  • Original antigenic sin
  • Vaccine efficacy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Smith, D. J., Lapedes, A. S., Forrest, S., de Jong, J. C., Osterhaus, A. D. M. E., Fouchier, R. A. M., Cox, N. J., & Perelson, A. S. (2001). Modeling the effects of updating the influenza vaccine on the efficacy of repeated vaccination. International Congress Series, 1219(C), 655-660. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0531-5131(01)00401-0