Abstract

The most recent Ebola outbreak inWest Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we develop and analyze amathematical model to assess the impact of early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing integrated control measures of early diagnosis and isolation. The mathematical analysis shows a threshold where early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals, combined with a sufficient level of effective isolation, can lead to an epidemic control of Ebola virus disease.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationMathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases
PublisherSpringer International Publishing
Pages57-70
Number of pages14
ISBN (Electronic)9783319404134
ISBN (Print)9783319404110
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2016

Fingerprint

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
Virus
Isolation
Early Diagnosis
Modeling
Sufficient
Western Africa
Mathematical Analysis
Disease Outbreaks
Diagnostics
Infrastructure
Africa

Keywords

  • Early detection
  • Ebola virus disease
  • Point-of-care testing
  • Pre-symptomatic infection

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mathematics(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Chowell, D., Safan, M., & Castillo-Chavez, C. (2016). Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease. In Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases (pp. 57-70). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_5

Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease. / Chowell, Diego; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos.

Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases. Springer International Publishing, 2016. p. 57-70.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Chowell, D, Safan, M & Castillo-Chavez, C 2016, Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease. in Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases. Springer International Publishing, pp. 57-70. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_5
Chowell D, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C. Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease. In Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases. Springer International Publishing. 2016. p. 57-70 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_5
Chowell, Diego ; Safan, Muntaser ; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos. / Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease. Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases. Springer International Publishing, 2016. pp. 57-70
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