Modeling and forecasting the U.S. manufacturing aggregate energy intensity

A. Al-Ghandoor, Patrick Phelan, Jesus Villalobos, B. E. Phelan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

Two forecasting models are developed for forecasting the U.S. manufacturing aggregate fuel and electricity intensities. The models are both simple to apply and capable of identifying the effect of underlying forces of aggregate energy intensity change. The validation of the results provided by these models is performed by comparing these results with those rendered by conventional decomposition techniques based on economic index numbers. The results indicate that the aggregate fuel intensity is expected to decline by 3.2% yr-1 from the year 2000 to 2010, of which 1.1% yr-1 is due to structural effect, i.e. a share of 32.9% of aggregate fuel intensity change. The results also show that in the same period the aggregate electricity intensity is expected to decline at a rate of 1.2% yr-1, of which 0.6% yr-1 is due to structural effect, i.e. a share of 46.3% of aggregate electricity intensity change.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)501-513
Number of pages13
JournalInternational Journal of Energy Research
Volume32
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2008

Keywords

  • Aggregate energy intensity
  • Decomposition analysis
  • Double exponential smoothing
  • Efficiency effect
  • Forecasting
  • Regression analysis
  • Structural effect

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering
  • Fuel Technology
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

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