Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America

Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Isaac Held, Yochanan Kushnir, Jian Lu, Gabriel Vecchi, Huei-Ping Huang, Nili Harnik, Ants Leetmaa, Ngar Cheung Lau, Cuihua Li, Jennifer Velez, Naomi Naik

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1391 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1181-1184
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume316
Issue number5828
DOIs
StatePublished - May 25 2007
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Droughts
North America
Climate
Meteorology
Water Resources
Resource Allocation
Climate Change
Dust

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Seager, R., Ting, M., Held, I., Kushnir, Y., Lu, J., Vecchi, G., ... Naik, N. (2007). Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science, 316(5828), 1181-1184. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601

Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. / Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Held, Isaac; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel; Huang, Huei-Ping; Harnik, Nili; Leetmaa, Ants; Lau, Ngar Cheung; Li, Cuihua; Velez, Jennifer; Naik, Naomi.

In: Science, Vol. 316, No. 5828, 25.05.2007, p. 1181-1184.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Seager, R, Ting, M, Held, I, Kushnir, Y, Lu, J, Vecchi, G, Huang, H-P, Harnik, N, Leetmaa, A, Lau, NC, Li, C, Velez, J & Naik, N 2007, 'Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America', Science, vol. 316, no. 5828, pp. 1181-1184. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601
Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Lu J, Vecchi G et al. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science. 2007 May 25;316(5828):1181-1184. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601
Seager, Richard ; Ting, Mingfang ; Held, Isaac ; Kushnir, Yochanan ; Lu, Jian ; Vecchi, Gabriel ; Huang, Huei-Ping ; Harnik, Nili ; Leetmaa, Ants ; Lau, Ngar Cheung ; Li, Cuihua ; Velez, Jennifer ; Naik, Naomi. / Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. In: Science. 2007 ; Vol. 316, No. 5828. pp. 1181-1184.
@article{2243f7468b5a4c97bd5ab7bd7bdd5294,
title = "Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America",
abstract = "How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.",
author = "Richard Seager and Mingfang Ting and Isaac Held and Yochanan Kushnir and Jian Lu and Gabriel Vecchi and Huei-Ping Huang and Nili Harnik and Ants Leetmaa and Lau, {Ngar Cheung} and Cuihua Li and Jennifer Velez and Naomi Naik",
year = "2007",
month = "5",
day = "25",
doi = "10.1126/science.1139601",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "316",
pages = "1181--1184",
journal = "Science",
issn = "0036-8075",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",
number = "5828",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America

AU - Seager, Richard

AU - Ting, Mingfang

AU - Held, Isaac

AU - Kushnir, Yochanan

AU - Lu, Jian

AU - Vecchi, Gabriel

AU - Huang, Huei-Ping

AU - Harnik, Nili

AU - Leetmaa, Ants

AU - Lau, Ngar Cheung

AU - Li, Cuihua

AU - Velez, Jennifer

AU - Naik, Naomi

PY - 2007/5/25

Y1 - 2007/5/25

N2 - How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

AB - How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34249947530&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=34249947530&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.1139601

DO - 10.1126/science.1139601

M3 - Article

VL - 316

SP - 1181

EP - 1184

JO - Science

JF - Science

SN - 0036-8075

IS - 5828

ER -