Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America

Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Isaac Held, Yochanan Kushnir, Jian Lu, Gabriel Vecchi, Huei Ping Huang, Nili Harnik, Ants Leetmaa, Ngar Cheung Lau, Cuihua Li, Jennifer Velez, Naomi Naik

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Abstract

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1181-1184
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume316
Issue number5828
DOIs
StatePublished - May 25 2007
Externally publishedYes

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Cite this

Seager, R., Ting, M., Held, I., Kushnir, Y., Lu, J., Vecchi, G., Huang, H. P., Harnik, N., Leetmaa, A., Lau, N. C., Li, C., Velez, J., & Naik, N. (2007). Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science, 316(5828), 1181-1184. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601