Model identification and prediction uncertainty of linear building energy use models with autocorrelated residuals

David K. Ruch, J. Kelly Kissock, T Agami Reddy

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Autocorrelated residuals from regression models of building energy use present problems when attempting to estimate retrofit energy savings and the uncertainty of the savings. This paper discusses the causes of autocorrelation in energy use models and proposes methods to deal with autocorrelation. A hybrid of ordinary least squares (OLS) and autoregressive (AR) models is developed to accurately predict energy use and give realistic uncertainty estimates. A procedure for model selection is presented and tested on data from three commercial buildings participating in the Texas LoanSTAR program. In every case examined, the hybrid OLS-AR model provided an uncertainty estimate for energy use far more accurate than the OLS estimate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationSolar Engineering
Place of PublicationNew York, NY, United States
PublisherPubl by ASME
Pages465-473
Number of pages9
ISBN (Print)0791809536
StatePublished - 1993
Externally publishedYes
EventASME International Solar Energy Conference - Washington, DC, USA
Duration: Apr 4 1993Apr 9 1993

Other

OtherASME International Solar Energy Conference
CityWashington, DC, USA
Period4/4/934/9/93

Fingerprint

Identification (control systems)
Autocorrelation
Energy conservation
Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Ruch, D. K., Kissock, J. K., & Reddy, T. A. (1993). Model identification and prediction uncertainty of linear building energy use models with autocorrelated residuals. In Solar Engineering (pp. 465-473). New York, NY, United States: Publ by ASME.

Model identification and prediction uncertainty of linear building energy use models with autocorrelated residuals. / Ruch, David K.; Kissock, J. Kelly; Reddy, T Agami.

Solar Engineering. New York, NY, United States : Publ by ASME, 1993. p. 465-473.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Ruch, DK, Kissock, JK & Reddy, TA 1993, Model identification and prediction uncertainty of linear building energy use models with autocorrelated residuals. in Solar Engineering. Publ by ASME, New York, NY, United States, pp. 465-473, ASME International Solar Energy Conference, Washington, DC, USA, 4/4/93.
Ruch DK, Kissock JK, Reddy TA. Model identification and prediction uncertainty of linear building energy use models with autocorrelated residuals. In Solar Engineering. New York, NY, United States: Publ by ASME. 1993. p. 465-473
Ruch, David K. ; Kissock, J. Kelly ; Reddy, T Agami. / Model identification and prediction uncertainty of linear building energy use models with autocorrelated residuals. Solar Engineering. New York, NY, United States : Publ by ASME, 1993. pp. 465-473
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