TY - JOUR
T1 - Mathematical assessment of the impact of cohort vaccination on pneumococcal carriage and serotype replacement
AU - Malik, Tufail M.
AU - Mohammed-Awel, Jemal
AU - Gumel, Abba B.
AU - Elbasha, Elamin H.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc. Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Although pneumococcal vaccines are quite effective in reducing disease burden, factors such as imperfect vaccine efficacy and serotype replacement present an important challenge against realizing direct and herd protection benefits of the vaccines. In this study, a novel mathematical model is designed and used to describe the dynamics of two Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) serotypes, in response to the introduction of a cohort vaccination program which targets one of the two serotypes. The model is fitted to a pediatric SP carriage prevalence data from Atlanta, GA. The model, which is rigorously analysed to investigate the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the associated equilibria (in addition to exploring conditions for competitive exclusion), is simulated to assess the impact of vaccination under different levels of serotype-specific competition and illustrate the phenomenon of serotype replacement. The calibrated model is used to forecast the carriage prevalence in the pediatric cohort over 30 years.
AB - Although pneumococcal vaccines are quite effective in reducing disease burden, factors such as imperfect vaccine efficacy and serotype replacement present an important challenge against realizing direct and herd protection benefits of the vaccines. In this study, a novel mathematical model is designed and used to describe the dynamics of two Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) serotypes, in response to the introduction of a cohort vaccination program which targets one of the two serotypes. The model is fitted to a pediatric SP carriage prevalence data from Atlanta, GA. The model, which is rigorously analysed to investigate the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the associated equilibria (in addition to exploring conditions for competitive exclusion), is simulated to assess the impact of vaccination under different levels of serotype-specific competition and illustrate the phenomenon of serotype replacement. The calibrated model is used to forecast the carriage prevalence in the pediatric cohort over 30 years.
KW - Streptococcus pneumoniae
KW - carriage-free equilibrium
KW - co-colonization
KW - competitive exclusion
KW - pneumococcal carriage
KW - serotype replacement
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U2 - 10.1080/17513758.2021.1884760
DO - 10.1080/17513758.2021.1884760
M3 - Article
C2 - 33594952
AN - SCOPUS:85101277715
SN - 1751-3758
VL - 15
SP - S214-S247
JO - Journal of biological dynamics
JF - Journal of biological dynamics
IS - S1
ER -