Abstract
Voting on legislative bills to form new laws serves as a key function of most legislature. Predicting the votes of such deliberative bodies leads to better understanding of government policies and generates actionable strategies for social good. In this paper, we present a novel prediction model that maximizes the usage of publicly accessible heterogeneous data, i.e., bill text and lawmakers' profile data, to carry out effective legislative prediction. In particular, we propose to design a probabilistic prediction model which achieves high consistency with past vote records while ensuring the minimum uncertainty of the vote prediction reflecting the firm legal ground often held by the lawmakers. In addition, the proposed legislative prediction model enjoys the following properties: inductive and analytical solution, abilities to deal with the prediction on new bills and new legislators, and robustness to the missing vote issue. We conduct extensive empirical study using the real legislative data and compare with other representative methods in both quantitative political science and data mining communities. The experimental results clearly corroborate that the proposed method provides superior prediction accuracy with visible performance gain.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | SIAM International Conference on Data Mining 2015, SDM 2015 |
| Publisher | Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Publications |
| Pages | 361-369 |
| Number of pages | 9 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9781510811522 |
| State | Published - 2015 |
| Event | SIAM International Conference on Data Mining 2015, SDM 2015 - Vancouver, Canada Duration: Apr 30 2015 → May 2 2015 |
Other
| Other | SIAM International Conference on Data Mining 2015, SDM 2015 |
|---|---|
| Country | Canada |
| City | Vancouver |
| Period | 4/30/15 → 5/2/15 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Computational Theory and Mathematics
- Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition
- Software
Cite this
Legislative prediction with dual uncertainty minimization from heterogeneous information. / Cheng, Yu; Agrawal, Ankit; Liu, Huan; Choudhary, Alok.
SIAM International Conference on Data Mining 2015, SDM 2015. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Publications, 2015. p. 361-369.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Legislative prediction with dual uncertainty minimization from heterogeneous information
AU - Cheng, Yu
AU - Agrawal, Ankit
AU - Liu, Huan
AU - Choudhary, Alok
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - Voting on legislative bills to form new laws serves as a key function of most legislature. Predicting the votes of such deliberative bodies leads to better understanding of government policies and generates actionable strategies for social good. In this paper, we present a novel prediction model that maximizes the usage of publicly accessible heterogeneous data, i.e., bill text and lawmakers' profile data, to carry out effective legislative prediction. In particular, we propose to design a probabilistic prediction model which achieves high consistency with past vote records while ensuring the minimum uncertainty of the vote prediction reflecting the firm legal ground often held by the lawmakers. In addition, the proposed legislative prediction model enjoys the following properties: inductive and analytical solution, abilities to deal with the prediction on new bills and new legislators, and robustness to the missing vote issue. We conduct extensive empirical study using the real legislative data and compare with other representative methods in both quantitative political science and data mining communities. The experimental results clearly corroborate that the proposed method provides superior prediction accuracy with visible performance gain.
AB - Voting on legislative bills to form new laws serves as a key function of most legislature. Predicting the votes of such deliberative bodies leads to better understanding of government policies and generates actionable strategies for social good. In this paper, we present a novel prediction model that maximizes the usage of publicly accessible heterogeneous data, i.e., bill text and lawmakers' profile data, to carry out effective legislative prediction. In particular, we propose to design a probabilistic prediction model which achieves high consistency with past vote records while ensuring the minimum uncertainty of the vote prediction reflecting the firm legal ground often held by the lawmakers. In addition, the proposed legislative prediction model enjoys the following properties: inductive and analytical solution, abilities to deal with the prediction on new bills and new legislators, and robustness to the missing vote issue. We conduct extensive empirical study using the real legislative data and compare with other representative methods in both quantitative political science and data mining communities. The experimental results clearly corroborate that the proposed method provides superior prediction accuracy with visible performance gain.
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M3 - Conference contribution
SN - 9781510811522
SP - 361
EP - 369
BT - SIAM International Conference on Data Mining 2015, SDM 2015
PB - Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Publications
ER -