Joint probabilistic forecasts of temperature and solar irradiance

Raksha Ramakrishna, Andrey Bernstein, Emiliano Dall'Anese, Anna Scaglione

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical relationship between temperature and solar irradiance is established in order to reduce the sample space and provide joint probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts can then be used for the purpose of stochastic optimization in power systems. A Volterra system type of model is derived to characterize the dependence of temperature on solar irradiance. A dataset from NOAA weather station in California is used to validate the fit of the model. Using the model, probabilistic forecasts of both temperature and irradiance are provided and the performance of the forecasting technique highlights the efficacy of the proposed approach. Results are indicative of the fact that the underlying correlation between temperature and irradiance is well captured and will therefore be useful to produce future scenarios of temperature and irradiance while approximating the underlying sample space appropriately.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2018 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, ICASSP 2018 - Proceedings
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages3819-3823
Number of pages5
Volume2018-April
ISBN (Print)9781538646588
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 10 2018
Event2018 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, ICASSP 2018 - Calgary, Canada
Duration: Apr 15 2018Apr 20 2018

Other

Other2018 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, ICASSP 2018
CountryCanada
CityCalgary
Period4/15/184/20/18

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Keywords

  • Probabilistic forecasts
  • Solar irradiance
  • Stochastic optimization
  • Temperature
  • Volterra system

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Signal Processing
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Cite this

Ramakrishna, R., Bernstein, A., Dall'Anese, E., & Scaglione, A. (2018). Joint probabilistic forecasts of temperature and solar irradiance. In 2018 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, ICASSP 2018 - Proceedings (Vol. 2018-April, pp. 3819-3823). [8462496] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICASSP.2018.8462496