Inductive and Deductive Reasoning to Assist in Cyber-Attack Prediction

Ericsson Marin, Mohammed Almukaynizi, Paulo Shakarian

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Information about cyber-attack planning has been increasingly shared by malicious hackers online, making what was once a hard-to-penetrate market becomes accessible to a wider population. Although this trend helps to produce a huge amount of malware, it also provides intelligence for defenders since the shared information can be leveraged as precursors of cyber-attacks. In this work, we apply Annotated Probabilistic Temporal (APT) logic into the cybersecurity domain to accomplish two tasks: 1) induct APT rules that correlate malicious hacking activity with enterprise attacks to predict imminent cyber incidents; 2) leverage a deductive approach that combines attack predictions for more accurate security warnings. Results demonstrate considerable prediction gains in F1 score (up to 150.24%) compared to the baseline when the pre-conditions of APT rules include socio-personal indicators of the hackers behind cyber incidents, and when the predictions made for a given day are combined using deduction (up to 182.38%). Those findings highlight how AI tools can empower proactive cyber defense.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2020 10th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference, CCWC 2020
EditorsSatyajit Chakrabarti, Rajashree Paul
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages262-268
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9781728137834
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2020
Event10th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference, CCWC 2020 - Las Vegas, United States
Duration: Jan 6 2020Jan 8 2020

Publication series

Name2020 10th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference, CCWC 2020

Conference

Conference10th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference, CCWC 2020
CountryUnited States
CityLas Vegas
Period1/6/201/8/20

Keywords

  • AI
  • Cybersecurity
  • Darkweb
  • Hacking
  • Logic

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications

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    Marin, E., Almukaynizi, M., & Shakarian, P. (2020). Inductive and Deductive Reasoning to Assist in Cyber-Attack Prediction. In S. Chakrabarti, & R. Paul (Eds.), 2020 10th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference, CCWC 2020 (pp. 262-268). [9031154] (2020 10th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference, CCWC 2020). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/CCWC47524.2020.9031154