Improving Predictive Accuracy with a Combination of Human Intuition and Mechanical Decision Aids

Stacey M. Whitecotton, D. Elaine Sanders, Kathleen B. Norris

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

43 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study examines the intuitive combination of human judgment and mechanical prediction under varied information conditions. As expected, mechanical prediction outperformed human intuition when based on the same information, but a combined approach was best when judges had access to relevant information not captured by the model (information asymmetry). The model was useful for differentiating between the event outcomes (improved slope), while eliminating the bias caused by base-rate neglect. Human intuition was useful for incorporating relevant information outside the scope of the model, resulting in improved slope and reduced judgment scatter. The addition of irrelevant information was detrimental to judgment accuracy, causing an increase in bias and a reduction in slope. These results provide insight intohowandwhencombining mechanical prediction and human intuition is likely to result in improved accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)325-348
Number of pages24
JournalOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Volume76
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1998
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Applied Psychology
  • Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management

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