Improved dynamic risk and reliability models based upon conditional probability distributions are developed. The new dynamic risk model is shown to reflect more accurately the overall risk (probability of failure considering both hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties) of a hydraulic structure. This dynamic risk model is also shown to have a close correspondence to nonparametric methods for evaluating the exceedance probability of a hydrologic event.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Water Science and Technology