@article{bb4140a824d8465185eca32a32c5617c,
title = "Impacts of projected urban expansion and global warming on cooling energy demand over a semiarid region",
abstract = "Large impacts of global warming and urbanization on near-surface air temperature increase and cooling energy demand are expected for the American Southwest region. The relative importance of these two features and their interactions are studied by means of a mesoscale model with a multilayer building energy model that allows accounting for the feedback between cooling energy consumption and air temperature for a typical summer period in Arizona. This approach allows to separate the impact of global warming from the one due to urbanization, on energy demand and air temperature. Under the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5), adverse effects on mean air temperature of global warming overwhelm those from the urbanization of new areas. In particular, the mean temperature increase for a summer period due to global warming and urban expansion in the Phoenix metropolitan area is 3.6 °C and in the Tucson metropolitan area, it is 3.1 °C. These result in an increase in the spatial density of the cooling energy demand (MW km−2) by 36.2 and 42.6% in the respective regions compared to present consumption. The citywide cooling energy demand (MW) on the other hand, is expected to increase up to a factor two (Phoenix) and three (Tucson), with ∼75% of this increase due to urban expansion, and ∼25% due to global warming.",
keywords = "global warming, mesoscale, urbanization",
author = "Mukul Tewari and {Salamanca Palou}, Francisco and Alberto Martilli and Lloyd Treinish and Alex Mahalov",
note = "Funding Information: Figure S2 shows land use-land cover (LULC) maps for the present day major cities of Arizona and their projections near the end of the century (2070). These maps are created from the US Geological Survey{\textquoteright}s National Land Cover Database (Fry et al., 2011) to represent the urban landscape of present-day central Arizona (a and b) and from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2009; Bierwagen et al., 2010; Sala-manca et al., 2015) to represent future Arizona (c and d) under a low-expansion scenario (LULC_Lo) and (e and f) under a high-expansion scenario (LULC_Hi). The urban areas are categorized as low-intensity residential, high-intensity residential, and commercial or industrial urban categories in these LULC maps, which are ingested in the WRF model (Martilli et al., 2002; Skamarock and Klemp, 2008; Salamanca et al., 2011). In the future projections, most of the areas that are urban in the present day, are unchanged in the LULC_Lo scenario and become high-intensity residential or commercial in the LULC_Hi projection. Funding Information: This work has been funded by National Science Foundation grant DMS 1419593 and USDA NIFA grant 2015-67003-23508. The author MT would like to thank Dr. Prabir Patra (Senior Scientist, JAMSTEC, Japan) for providing helpful comments while finalizing the manuscript. The authors also like to thank Dr. Jimy Dudhia (NCAR, Boulder, CO) for his suggestions. All the figures in this work are generated using the NCAR command language (version 6.3.0) [Software]. (2015). Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD. http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/ D6WD3XH5. M. T. and F. S. conducted the simulations. M. T., F. S., and Alb. M carried out the analysis. M. T., F. S., Alb. M., L. T., and A. M. planned the study and wrote the manuscript. The authors declare no competing financial interest. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017 The Authors. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.",
year = "2017",
month = nov,
doi = "10.1002/asl.784",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "18",
pages = "419--426",
journal = "Atmospheric Science Letters",
issn = "1530-261X",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",
number = "11",
}