Abstract
We introduce a general framework to study the dynamics of multiple strain pathogens that can impart crossimmunity through a variety of structures. We propose two types of immunity and apply them to assess the dynamics of two competing strains. We illustrate this framework using two "visions": the nexttokin protection (NTKP) approach which assumes that strains confer crossimmunity to next in order (neighboring) strains, while providing no protection against all other strains; and the differential protection (DP) approach assumes that individuals randomly gain partial (may be reinfected) and full cross-immunity following an infection with respective probabilities. We show that the risk of infection with a particular strain is significantly higher in the DP model that the NKTP. Moreover, we demonstrate that weaker cross-immunity structures in these models are more likely to lead to instability (sustained oscillations) in the strain coexistence mode. That is, periodic oscillations are sustained in the two-strain DP model for intermediate to weak levels of cross-immunity, while the NTKP model requires at least three strains to support these unstable dynamics.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 713-737 |
Number of pages | 25 |
Journal | Journal of Biological Systems |
Volume | 17 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Dec 2009 |
Keywords
- Coexistence
- CrossImmunity
- Differential Protection
- Multiple Strains
- NexttoKin Protection
- Oscillatory Coexistence
- Reinfection
- Sustained Oscillations
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Ecology
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Applied Mathematics