Evaluation hydrologique des réservoirs proposés dans le bassin de la rivière Sonora (Mexique), sous scénarios climatiques historique et futurs

Translated title of the contribution: Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios

A. Robles-Morua, D. Che, A. S. Mayer, Enrique Vivoni

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Scopus citations

Abstract

A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions.

Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)50-66
Number of pages17
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume60
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 10 2014

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • decision support
  • flood control
  • hydrological modelling
  • northwest Mexico
  • water infrastructure

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

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