Abstract
A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 50-66 |
Number of pages | 17 |
Journal | Hydrological Sciences Journal |
Volume | 60 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Nov 10 2014 |
Keywords
- climate change
- decision support
- flood control
- hydrological modelling
- northwest Mexico
- water infrastructure
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Water Science and Technology