Abstract
Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45-49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Article number | 20150155 |
| Journal | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
| Volume | 371 |
| Issue number | 1692 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Apr 19 2016 |
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Keywords
- Completed fertility
- Fertility transition
- Negative binomial
- Poisson
- Variance
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
- Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Cite this
How does variance in fertility change over the demographic transition? / Hruschka, Daniel; Burger, Oskar.
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 371, No. 1692, 20150155, 19.04.2016.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
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TY - JOUR
T1 - How does variance in fertility change over the demographic transition?
AU - Hruschka, Daniel
AU - Burger, Oskar
PY - 2016/4/19
Y1 - 2016/4/19
N2 - Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45-49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables.
AB - Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45-49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables.
KW - Completed fertility
KW - Fertility transition
KW - Negative binomial
KW - Poisson
KW - Variance
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84961872451&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1098/rstb.2015.0155
DO - 10.1098/rstb.2015.0155
M3 - Article
C2 - 27022082
AN - SCOPUS:84961872451
VL - 371
JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
SN - 0800-4622
IS - 1692
M1 - 20150155
ER -