How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions

Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Hong Xu, Tracy E. Twine, Evan H. Girvetz, Heather R. McCarthy, Netra Chhetri, Kimberly A. Nicholas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMMgrowing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°-4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southernAustralia acrossmodels is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)4653-4687
Number of pages35
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume28
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Fingerprint

cropping practice
wheat
maize
climate change
twenty first century
growing season
yield response
vegetation dynamics
dry season
climate modeling
temperature
crop
climate

Keywords

  • Agriculture
  • Australia
  • Climate change
  • Climate models
  • Climate variability
  • North America

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Ummenhofer, C. C., Xu, H., Twine, T. E., Girvetz, E. H., McCarthy, H. R., Chhetri, N., & Nicholas, K. A. (2015). How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions. Journal of Climate, 28(12), 4653-4687. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1

How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions. / Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan H.; McCarthy, Heather R.; Chhetri, Netra; Nicholas, Kimberly A.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, No. 12, 2015, p. 4653-4687.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ummenhofer, CC, Xu, H, Twine, TE, Girvetz, EH, McCarthy, HR, Chhetri, N & Nicholas, KA 2015, 'How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions', Journal of Climate, vol. 28, no. 12, pp. 4653-4687. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1
Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Xu, Hong ; Twine, Tracy E. ; Girvetz, Evan H. ; McCarthy, Heather R. ; Chhetri, Netra ; Nicholas, Kimberly A. / How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions. In: Journal of Climate. 2015 ; Vol. 28, No. 12. pp. 4653-4687.
@article{08b91160f800482a90716ed7a45f1812,
title = "How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions",
abstract = "Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18{\%}. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMMgrowing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15{\%}, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°-4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70{\%}. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southernAustralia acrossmodels is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.",
keywords = "Agriculture, Australia, Climate change, Climate models, Climate variability, North America",
author = "Ummenhofer, {Caroline C.} and Hong Xu and Twine, {Tracy E.} and Girvetz, {Evan H.} and McCarthy, {Heather R.} and Netra Chhetri and Nicholas, {Kimberly A.}",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "28",
pages = "4653--4687",
journal = "Journal of Climate",
issn = "0894-8755",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "12",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions

AU - Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

AU - Xu, Hong

AU - Twine, Tracy E.

AU - Girvetz, Evan H.

AU - McCarthy, Heather R.

AU - Chhetri, Netra

AU - Nicholas, Kimberly A.

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMMgrowing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°-4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southernAustralia acrossmodels is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.

AB - Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMMgrowing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°-4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southernAustralia acrossmodels is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.

KW - Agriculture

KW - Australia

KW - Climate change

KW - Climate models

KW - Climate variability

KW - North America

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84942928105&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84942928105&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1

DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84942928105

VL - 28

SP - 4653

EP - 4687

JO - Journal of Climate

JF - Journal of Climate

SN - 0894-8755

IS - 12

ER -