Hierarchical tree-based sequential event prediction with application in the aviation accident report

Xinyu Zhao, Hao Yan, Yongming Liu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Sequential event prediction is a well-studied area and has been widely used in proactive management, recommender systems and healthcare. One major assumption of the existing sequential event prediction methods is that similar event sequence patterns in the historical record will repeat themselves, enabling us to predict future events. However, in reality, the assumption becomes less convincing when we are trying to predict rare or unique sequences. Furthermore, the representation of the event may be complex with hierarchical structures. In this paper, we aim to solve this issue by taking advantage of the multi-level or hierarchical representation of these rare events. We proposed to build a sequential Encoder-Decoder framework to predict the event sequences. More specifically, in the encoding layer, we built a hierarchical embedding representation for the events. In the decoding layer, we first predict the high-level events and the low-level events are generated according to a hierarchical graphical structure. We propose to link the encoding decoding layers with the temporal models for future event prediction. In this article, we further discussed applying the proposed model into the failure event prediction according to the aviation accident reports and have shown improved accuracy and model interpretability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2021 IEEE 37th International Conference on Data Engineering, ICDE 2021
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Pages1925-1930
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781728191843
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2021
Event37th IEEE International Conference on Data Engineering, ICDE 2021 - Virtual, Chania, Greece
Duration: Apr 19 2021Apr 22 2021

Publication series

NameProceedings - International Conference on Data Engineering
Volume2021-April
ISSN (Print)1084-4627

Conference

Conference37th IEEE International Conference on Data Engineering, ICDE 2021
Country/TerritoryGreece
CityVirtual, Chania
Period4/19/214/22/21

Keywords

  • Aviation accident
  • Embedding
  • Event prediction
  • Hierarchical tree structure
  • Sequential model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Signal Processing
  • Information Systems

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