Greenhouse gas emissions in an equity-, environment- and service-oriented world: An IMAGE-based scenario for the 21st century

Bert De Vries, Johannes Bollen, Lex Bouwman, Michel Den Elzen, Marco Janssen, Eric Kreileman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

46 Scopus citations

Abstract

This article describes a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario for a world that chooses collectively and effectively to pursue service-oriented economic prosperity while taking into account equity and environmental concerns, but without policies directed at mitigating climate change. After peaking around 2050 at 2.2 times the 1990 level of primary energy use, a number of factors lead to a primary energy use rate at the end of the next century that is only 40% higher than the 1990 rate. Among these factors are a stabilizing (and after 2050, declining) population, convergence in economic productivity, dematerialization and technology transfer, and high-tech innovations in energy use and supply. Land use-related emissions show a similar trend. Total CO2 emissions peak at 12.8 CtC/yr around 2040, after which they start falling off. Other GHG emissions show a similar trend. The resulting CO2-equivalent concentration continues to rise to about 600 ppmv in 2100. Present understanding of climate change impacts suggest that even in this world of high-tech innovations in resource use in combination with effective global governance and concern about equity and environment issues, climate policy is needed if mankind is to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)137-174
Number of pages38
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume63
Issue number2-3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2000
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business and International Management
  • Applied Psychology
  • Management of Technology and Innovation

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