@article{63dba457b40d4b0b8f0caf133c11b30e,
title = "Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area",
abstract = "The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. Weuse synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revisedmaps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone.",
author = "Manoochehr Shirzaei and Roland B{\"u}rgmann",
note = "Funding Information: The contribution of M.S. was funded by NSF grants EAR-1357079 and EAR-1735630 and NASA grants 80NSSC170567 and NNX17AD98G, and R.B. acknowledges support by NASA grant NNX12AQ32G and by Point Blue Conservation Science. Radar data were provided by the Alaska Satellite Facilities. We thank UNAVCO for the operation and maintenance of the PBO GNSS stations and data archiving. These data and services are provided by the UNAVCO Facility with support from the NSF and NASA under NSF Cooperative agreement no. EAR-0735156. Additional GNSS data for this study come from the BARD network, doi: 10.7932/BARD, operated by the University of California, Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, which is archived at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC), doi: 10.7932/NCEDC. The LiDAR data were collected through a collaboration among the California Ocean Protection Council, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Author contributions: M.S. led the analysis. R.B. assisted with the interpretation of the results. All authors contributed to the theory and to the writing of the paper. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Additional data related to this paper may be requested from the authors. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).",
year = "2018",
month = mar,
day = "7",
doi = "10.1126/sciadv.aap9234",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "4",
journal = "Science advances",
issn = "2375-2548",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",
number = "3",
}
