TY - JOUR
T1 - Factors influencing national scale wildfire susceptibility in Canada
AU - Gralewicz, Nicholas J.
AU - Nelson, Trisalyn A.
AU - Wulder, Michael A.
N1 - Funding Information:
Elements of his research were enabled through funding of “BioSpace: Biodiversity monitoring with Earth Observation data” via the Government Related Initiatives Program (GRIP) of the Canadian Space Agency . As well, funding was provided by NSERC . The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre and its member agencies ( http://www.ciffc.ca/ ) are thanked for developing the National Fire Database and for enabling our use of the data in this analysis. Thanks to Karen Laberee for editorial assistance. Thanks to the two anonymous reviewers for thoughtful comments that helped improve our manuscript.
PY - 2012/2/1
Y1 - 2012/2/1
N2 - Wildfires are expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to effectively manage and monitor climate-induced changes in Canadian forests, a national-scale understanding of factors influencing wildfire susceptibility is necessary. The goal of this study is to better understand factors influencing large area wildfire susceptibility in Canada. Using year 2000 Canadian land cover data, we identify locations that burned before and after 2000. Pre- and post-fire landscape patterns were assessed and regression tree analyses were used to identify factors influencing national-scale fire susceptibility. Land cover composition, forest pattern, elevation, and anthropogenic influences were quantified for both pre- and post-fire environments. We examined recovery of forest pattern following wildfire events and derived a large-area fire susceptibility model using decision tree classification. Our results indicate that 11.88% of forested ecozones were impacted by large fires. The majority of large wildfires occur in coniferous forests characterized by high forest cover (greater than 45%), few forest patches, large mean forest patch area, and fragmentation-limited forest. Forests occurring at low to intermediate distances from populated places (50-150. km) and roads (12-72. km) experienced unexpectedly high amounts of fire, as did lower elevation forests. After fire, percentage forest cover, number of forest patches, forest patch size, and proportion forest patches regenerated to pre-fire forest pattern conditions within approximately 20. years. Anthropogenic influences on wildfire susceptibility indicate that human activity still dictates national fire regimes. Additionally, knowledge of space-time patterns of fire-landscape interaction and landscape pattern regeneration provides useful baselines for future comparisons with responses to climate change.
AB - Wildfires are expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to effectively manage and monitor climate-induced changes in Canadian forests, a national-scale understanding of factors influencing wildfire susceptibility is necessary. The goal of this study is to better understand factors influencing large area wildfire susceptibility in Canada. Using year 2000 Canadian land cover data, we identify locations that burned before and after 2000. Pre- and post-fire landscape patterns were assessed and regression tree analyses were used to identify factors influencing national-scale fire susceptibility. Land cover composition, forest pattern, elevation, and anthropogenic influences were quantified for both pre- and post-fire environments. We examined recovery of forest pattern following wildfire events and derived a large-area fire susceptibility model using decision tree classification. Our results indicate that 11.88% of forested ecozones were impacted by large fires. The majority of large wildfires occur in coniferous forests characterized by high forest cover (greater than 45%), few forest patches, large mean forest patch area, and fragmentation-limited forest. Forests occurring at low to intermediate distances from populated places (50-150. km) and roads (12-72. km) experienced unexpectedly high amounts of fire, as did lower elevation forests. After fire, percentage forest cover, number of forest patches, forest patch size, and proportion forest patches regenerated to pre-fire forest pattern conditions within approximately 20. years. Anthropogenic influences on wildfire susceptibility indicate that human activity still dictates national fire regimes. Additionally, knowledge of space-time patterns of fire-landscape interaction and landscape pattern regeneration provides useful baselines for future comparisons with responses to climate change.
KW - Anthropogenic influence
KW - Burn susceptibility
KW - Forest fragmentation
KW - Landscape pattern
KW - Regeneration
KW - Spatial temporal pattern of wildfire
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=81255163745&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=81255163745&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.foreco.2011.10.031
DO - 10.1016/j.foreco.2011.10.031
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:81255163745
SN - 0378-1127
VL - 265
SP - 20
EP - 29
JO - Forest Ecology and Management
JF - Forest Ecology and Management
ER -