Extreme summer heat in Phoenix, Arizona (USA) under global climate change (2041-2070)

Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Sebastian Schubert, Thomas R. Clarke, Sharon Harlan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Summer extreme heat events in the arid Phoenix, Arizona (USA) metropolitan region for the period 2041-2070 are projected based on the ensemble of ten climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme heat events are identified by measures related to two thresholds of the maximum daily air temperature distribution for the historical reference period 1971-2000. Comparing this reference period to the model ensemble-mean, the frequency of extreme heat events is projected to increase by a factor of six to 1.9 events per summer and the average number of event days per year is projected to increase by a factor of 14. The inter-model range for the average number of EHE days per summer is larger for the projected climate, 10.6 to 42.2 days, than for simulations of the past climate simulations (1.5 to 2.4 days).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)49-61
Number of pages13
JournalErde
Volume145
Issue number1-2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014

Keywords

  • Extreme heat events
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
  • Phoenix, Arizona, USA

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology
  • Energy(all)
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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    Grossman-Clarke, S., Schubert, S., Clarke, T. R., & Harlan, S. (2014). Extreme summer heat in Phoenix, Arizona (USA) under global climate change (2041-2070). Erde, 145(1-2), 49-61. https://doi.org/10.12854/erde-145-5