Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Burglary Patterns

Sergio J. Rey, Elizabeth Mack, Julia Koschinsky

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

38 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper introduces two new methods for the exploratory analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of residential burglary patterns. The first is a conditional spatial Markov chain which considers the extent to which a location's probability of experiencing a residential burglary in a future period is related to the prevalence of residential burglaries in its surrounding neighborhood in an initial period. The second measure extends this conditional perspective to examine the joint evolution of residential burglary in a location and its surrounding neighborhood. These methods are applied to a case study of residential burglary patterns in Mesa, Arizona over the period October 2005 through December 2009. Strong patterns of spatial clustering of burglary activity are present in each year, and this clustering is found to have an important influence on both the conditional and joint evolution of burglary activity across space and time.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)509-531
Number of pages23
JournalJournal of Quantitative Criminology
Volume28
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2012

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Cluster Analysis
Joints
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Markov Chains
time

Keywords

  • hotspots
  • Markov chain
  • Residential burglary
  • Space-time

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Law

Cite this

Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Burglary Patterns. / Rey, Sergio J.; Mack, Elizabeth; Koschinsky, Julia.

In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 28, No. 3, 09.2012, p. 509-531.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Rey, Sergio J. ; Mack, Elizabeth ; Koschinsky, Julia. / Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Burglary Patterns. In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 2012 ; Vol. 28, No. 3. pp. 509-531.
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