@article{29efb878c3714d0493d2987203cec8e4,
title = "Evolution of future precipitation extremes: Viewpoint of climate change classification",
abstract = "Climate change is often described as the average changes in temperature and precipitation; however, it is the change in climate extremes determines the levels of socioeconomic impacts related to climate change. It is generally believed that global warming drives increase in frequency, intensity and duration of precipitation extremes, but these changes vary regionally. Focusing on the relationships between evolution of extreme events and long-term climate change, here we propose a novel classification scheme based on Kӧppen's system and changes in mean and variability of precipitation, divide the global climate into 20 different changing types and reveal the regional evolution of precipitation extremes. We find that precipitation extremes ascend significantly in wetting regions, especially in tropical and temperate zones, independent with changed variability. As for drying regions, the evolution of extremes is related to precipitation variability. An increase of extremes can still be detected in fluctuant-drying areas, while a slight decrease can be seen in stabilized-drying areas. It is surprising to find increase in both wetness and dryness extremes which implies higher intensity of meteorological hazards in densely populated areas. Based on the current and projected growth of population exposure to precipitation extremes, we identify some hotspots with high potential risk in the future.",
keywords = "climate change, climate classification, future scenario, population exposure, precipitation extremes",
author = "Shao Sun and Peijun Shi and Qiang Zhang and Jing'ai Wang and Jianguo Wu and Deliang Chen",
note = "Funding Information: National Key Research and Development Program of China, Grant/Award Numbers: 2016YFA0602404, 2018YFC1509003, 2019YFA0606904; National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Numbers: 41701103, 41771536 Funding information Funding Information: This research is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0602404, 2018YFC1509003 and 2019YFA0606904) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41701103 and 41771536). The authors would like to thank World Climate Research Programme for providing multimodel simulations based on representative concentration pathways ( https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/ ), and the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) for providing the population projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ( https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/popdynamics‐1‐km‐downscaled‐pop‐base‐year‐projection‐ssp‐2000‐2100‐rev01 ). Funding Information: This research is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0602404, 2018YFC1509003 and 2019YFA0606904) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41701103 and 41771536). The authors would like to thank World Climate Research Programme for providing multimodel simulations based on representative concentration pathways (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/), and the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) for providing the population projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/popdynamics-1-km-downscaled-pop-base-year-projection-ssp-2000-2100-rev01). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.",
year = "2022",
month = feb,
doi = "10.1002/joc.7298",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "42",
pages = "1220--1230",
journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
issn = "0899-8418",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "2",
}