Evaluation of scenario-specific modeling approaches to predict plane of array solar irradiation

Predicting thermal or electric power output from solar collectors requires knowledge of solar irradiance incident on the collector, known as plane of array irradiance. In the absence of such a measurement, plane of array irradiation can be predicted using relevant transposition models which essentially requires diffuse (or beam) radiation to be to be known along with total horizontal irradiation. The two main objectives of the current study are (1) to evaluate the extent to which the prediction of plane of array irradiance is improved when diffuse radiation is predicted using location-specific regression models developed from on-site measured data as against using generalized models; and (2) to estimate the expected uncertainties associated with plane of array irradiance predictions under different data collection scenarios likely to be encountered in practical situations. These issues have been investigated using monitored data for several U.S. locations in conjunction with the Typical Meteorological Year, version 3 database. An interesting behavior in the Typical Meteorological Year, version 3 data was also observed in correlation patterns between diffuse and total radiation taken from different years which seems to attest to a measurement problem. The current study was accomplished under a broader research agenda aimed at providing energy managers the necessary tools for predicting, scheduling, and controlling various sub-systems of an integrated energy system.