Evaluation of risk assessment of mountain pine beetle infestations

Caren C. Dymond, Michael A. Wulder, Terry L. Shore, Trisalyn Nelson, Barry Boots, Bill G. Riel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Decision support systems to aid the management of mountain pine beetles combine characteristics of the stand and beetle infestation to estimate risk of damage. Beetle infestation information is now available in a format amenable to the operational implementation of risk. In this study, an established risk rating system was evaluated to determine the utility of the values generated. For a study area located in British Columbia, Canada, global positioning systems were used to survey an infestation. The annual data was used to generate risk for a given year and to compare the ratings with survey data from the subsequent year. Under epidemic conditions, 30% to 43% of the stands rated as high risk were subsequently infested. Of the infested stands, 72% to 76% had a high risk rating. In general, the risk rating system accurately predicted risk in stands that were infested, but not all high risk stands were subsequently attacked. This highlights the difficulty of modeling processes that have a stochastic component. For operational contexts, the estimation of risk on an annual basis is sufficiently reliable to aid in the strategic planning of forest managers.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5-13
Number of pages9
JournalWestern Journal of Applied Forestry
Volume21
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2006
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Dendroctonus ponderosae
risk assessment
beetle
mountain
risk estimate
stand characteristics
stochastic processes
beetle infestations
evaluation
global positioning systems
decision support systems
British Columbia
decision support system
managers
planning
Canada
GPS

Keywords

  • Decision support
  • Dendroctonus ponderosae
  • Epidemic
  • Forest damage
  • Global positioning systems
  • Mountain pine beetle
  • Risk rating
  • Survey

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Forestry
  • Plant Science

Cite this

Dymond, C. C., Wulder, M. A., Shore, T. L., Nelson, T., Boots, B., & Riel, B. G. (2006). Evaluation of risk assessment of mountain pine beetle infestations. Western Journal of Applied Forestry, 21(1), 5-13.

Evaluation of risk assessment of mountain pine beetle infestations. / Dymond, Caren C.; Wulder, Michael A.; Shore, Terry L.; Nelson, Trisalyn; Boots, Barry; Riel, Bill G.

In: Western Journal of Applied Forestry, Vol. 21, No. 1, 01.2006, p. 5-13.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Dymond, CC, Wulder, MA, Shore, TL, Nelson, T, Boots, B & Riel, BG 2006, 'Evaluation of risk assessment of mountain pine beetle infestations', Western Journal of Applied Forestry, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 5-13.
Dymond CC, Wulder MA, Shore TL, Nelson T, Boots B, Riel BG. Evaluation of risk assessment of mountain pine beetle infestations. Western Journal of Applied Forestry. 2006 Jan;21(1):5-13.
Dymond, Caren C. ; Wulder, Michael A. ; Shore, Terry L. ; Nelson, Trisalyn ; Boots, Barry ; Riel, Bill G. / Evaluation of risk assessment of mountain pine beetle infestations. In: Western Journal of Applied Forestry. 2006 ; Vol. 21, No. 1. pp. 5-13.
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